The two signals
Two signals reach your screen every match: a player's recent fantasy points and a player's role in the side. The form signal is the easier to read because it is a number that updates weekly. The role signal is the harder to read because it is a story that you build from squad announcements, captain's rotations and overs allocations. The form signal is also the less predictive of the two.
Why is the form signal less predictive? Because recent points are noisy. A player who scored 80 points last match may have ridden a single boundary-laden innings; a player who scored 20 points may have played a steady role that produced 20 points again. The next match is more likely to look like the role than the form, especially for players whose roles are stable.
How to read role
Role is read from three inputs. The first is the batting position: is the player locked at three, or floating at five and six? The second is the bowling allocation: is the bowler guaranteed three death overs, or are the overs dependent on the match situation? The third is the matchup: is the player facing a bowling type that suits the player's scoring area, or a bowling type that has historically troubled the player?
When all three inputs point in the same direction, the role signal is strong and the form signal is largely noise. When the inputs point in different directions, the role signal is mixed and the form signal is a useful tiebreaker. The discipline is to read the role first and the form second, not the other way around.
When form beats role
There are three situations where the form signal beats the role signal. The first is a role change: when a player has just been promoted or demoted, the recent points reflect the new role and the form signal is the cleanest read. The second is a venue-specific role: when a player has a long history of performing at a specific venue, the form signal at that venue is more reliable than the role signal averaged across venues. The third is a matchup-specific form: when a player has a long history of performing against a specific opposition or bowling type, the form signal in that matchup is the cleanest read.
Confidence label: editorial inference. The role-versus-form distinction is a starting point; refine it with your own reads and the prediction desk's match-day calls.